Monday, November 12, 2007

Discount factors

Isn't it annoying when people lie to you? And it is especially annoying when the person or party telling the lie has been entrusted to tell the truth.

I have always had problems trusting newspaper articles 100%. So whenever I read the papers, I have this strange habit of discounting the reports by a certain percentage. I have long adopted a discount factor of between 10% to 20%. For example, if it is reported that 100 people have died in a tragedy, I would give it a margin of error of 10%-20% so that in my mind I see between 80 to 120 people have died in the tragedy.

Last night I posted an article entitled "Animals in us" in connection with the BERSIH demonstration last Saturday. In it, I provided a link to an article I extracted from The Star which gave a figure (which it in turn obtained from the Inspector-General of Police) of about 4,000 demonstrators.

This morning, a friend, having read my post, was kind enough to send me some links which reveal a far larger crowd in the BERSIH march — 40,000 instead of 4,000 (Check out the links here and here). That works out to be a mind-boggling 90% discount factor. It gives us an idea of how unreliable the information by the police chief is; and it also shows the level of reliance one can place on The Star.

1 comment:

Anonymous said...

That's why I never believe 100% everything I read in the papers. The so-called "freedom of press" is not so free after all...if you know what I mean!

My dad had an accident, and there was a small article in the papers. Needless to say, all the facts were screwed.

PS: Dad's recuperating so will be ok.