I would be lying if I said I'm surprised by the announcement. After all, the SAPP (or rather those people in SAPP) had abandoned ship before when PBS was in power. Of course an avalanche will soon follow. Don't bet on the other BN component parties standing up together to fight on—or you will lose big time. That would be uncharacteristic of Sabahan politicians—well, at least based on historical trends, they won't. Of course I might be wrong, but I doubt it.
According to Pak Lah, Yong Teck Lee's latest action was as a result of the former's failure to satisfy the latter's personal greed. [Bernama] Why am I not surprised? Isn't that a natural instinct of all politicians? When you are thrown into a corrupt system, even a squeaky-clean fellow will be converted, sooner or later. It's just a matter of time, you see.
If you are onboard a sinking ship, what would your first reaction be? I think it is almost an automatic reaction to abandon ship, unless of course if you have made up your mind to die together with that ship.
So was it personal greed? Of course it was, don't be ridiculous! What else could it be? Care for the people? Bah!
But let me tell you what's likely gonna happen. Firstly, there will be an avalanche as I've mentioned above. If that is not enough to result in a power shift, then we will come to a short period of stale-mate situation. But I'd predict the weight will eventually shift to the other side.
Secondly, we will see the same cycle happening all over again. If indeed we will witness the formation of a new government in Sabah, don't expect that that new government will solve the problems with the illegal immigrants. No, that is not going to happen; if anything, it will probably get even worse. Again this is all based on historical trends. After all, we have been going in circles about illegal immigrants since decades ago. I just can't see why it should be any different now.
Thirdly—and this is important—those who abandon ship first will get to occupy higher positions in the new government. We all know the saying: early birds get the worms. So be prepared for some entertainments. Let's hear the excuses (for abandoning ship) coming one by one.
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Update (as of 20 June):
How interesting—SAPP has not exactly declared that they want out of BN; they merely initiated a no-confidence vote motion against the PM. Perhaps not so nice to be seen abandoning ship, huh?
BN on the other hand is not expelling SAPP—yet. In the good old days, SAPP would be out by now. But when one has a "slim" majority, one has to be careful not to be too trigger-happy about sacking one's members. Otherwise, he might soon find himself with no one left to sack! And so, as of now the excuse is that the declaration made on Wednesday was that by Yong Teck Lee in his personal capacity; NOT by SAPP. That's the reason SAPP is still in the BN. It will be interesting to see what happens when and if it is confirmed that the "no-confidence" vote was indeed that of the SAPP.
Never mind about Raymond Tan; although he is the Deputy President of SAPP, let's not forget that he is also the Deputy Chief Minister of Sabah. He has a lot a stake. He must be careful.
A beautiful political game, in my opinion. Based on the polls of its members, the SAPP apparently has an overwhelming support of its members to leave BN. Yet they're not doing so up to now. They will probably do that in the end, but not so soon. It would be better if the BN kicked them out.
Sabahans have a history of being sympathatic to the party who's being beaten up by a big bully. I'm eager to see if that is still the case when SAPP is eventually expelled from BN.
So now the ball is on SAPP's side of the court. Today SAPP is supposed to declare its reaction to BN's decision. I'm sure we are all waiting for the 2:30pm press conference.
More to come...
Update:
It's been slightly over a week since Yong Teck Lee dropped the bombshell.
The SAPP and BN are still playing cat and mouse up to now. SAPP is waiting to be expelled; BN is waiting for SAPP to quit BN.
BN has come up with something interesting—it's asking SAPP for a show-cause explanation, apparently SAPP is to give BN an excuse why SAPP shouldn't be expelled.
In the mean time, BN is also getting more confident because all the other component parties—at least in Sabah—are apparently fully supporting BN. So if entirely necessary, it might be quite safe to expel SAPP, huh?
DON'T BE TOO SURE WHEN DEALING WITH THE SABAHAN POLITICIANS!
Many people predicted that Raymond Tan, the Deputy Chief Minister of Sabah, would leave SAPP in support of BN. Well, he's still in SAPP up to now. Maybe he will leave SAPP eventually; maybe not. We'll see.
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