Deadly Flu

Last Saturday, JJ had a bout of diarrhoea. So by yesterday morning, we brought her to see a paediatrician who happens to be my ex-classmate during the Sabah College days. We lingered on a while longer to chit-chat a bit on the topic of the A(H1N1) flu.

It happens that JJ is considered to be in the high-risk group because she has a bit of problem with her respiratory system. When she was younger, she frequently fell ill due to flu and cough. According to the doctor, if we're not careful, it can turn into something more serious like asthma. However, the good news is that the condition is not necessarily permanent—kids will usually grow out of it. Well, JJ's respiratory system has improved a lot but the doctor still considers her within the high-risk group as far as the A(H1N1) flu is concerned.

So I was asking the doctor if there is anyway we can protect JJ from the A(H1N1). Well, apart from wearing the mask, and washing hands etc, there is actually no way to protect against the infection. We can only try to reduce the risk of infection!

But the human race has a very interesting means of protection. The doctor reckons that by the next year or so, approximately 30% of us would be tested positive of the A(H1N1), but if those who're not tested are to be included, perhaps 50% of the population would have been infected by the A(H1N1). Of those who're infected, an estimated 1% - 2% would die of the disease, whereas the rest will develop some sort of defense machenism against the virus. By then, the majority of the population would have had the natural protection, and the infection rate would automatically slow down. According to the doctor, right now we are just at the beginning, and the infection rate will be very high for a while; almost every day we will see many more new cases in the population.

After the visit to the doctor, I started thinking about the 50% estimate. That's like almost everyone will be infected! Which means there is a good chance that my JJ will also get it. The doctor said not to worry too much. He said just make sure that once the kid develops high fever, flu and cough, don't waste any time to seek medical help. Speedy medical intervention can help substantially. He emphasised the mortality rate of only 1% - 2% at most; the rest who're infected will fight off the disease and survive.

In the mean time, many scientists are rushing to develop the vaccine against the A(H1N1). But the doctor estimates that the soonest the vaccine can be ready is at least half a year, with a possible 1 year to 2 years to be readily available in Malaysia.

I know strictly speaking 1% - 2% is a very small margin. One would have to be very unlucky to be within those 1% - 2%. Still, I admit that I'm getting a bit paranoid. I'm crossing my fingers; hopefully the vaccine will become available much sooner than the doctor's estimate.